Russia May Send Troops to Belarus in Case of a Change of Government There - RAND Corporation

10/12/2021
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Despite its relatively small global economic footprint, Russia has engaged in more military interventions than any other U.S. competitor since the end of the Cold War. This is stated in the report “Russia's Military Interventions. Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts”, by the American think tank RAND Corporation.

The report assesses when, where and why Russia resorted to military interventions, and analyzes 25 Russian interventions since 1991, including detailed examples of the 2008 Russian-Georgian war and Moscow's involvement in the ongoing civil war in Syria.

In particular, analysts at RAND Corporation predict that Russia will again resort to military intervention to prevent the erosion of its influence in neighboring countries. According to experts, if a government hostile to Moscow's interests comes to power in Belarus or Armenia (as Russia's main regional allies), Russian intervention is quite possible.

Scientists believe that any changes in post-Soviet Eurasia that contradict the Russian Federation’s interests should be seen as potential triggers for military action. Moscow will not hesitate to act, including with force, in its immediate neighborhood.