russia Is Losing Billions Amid Sanctions, Lack of Technology and Falling Oil Prices

Since the beginning of 2025, the rf  has been witnessing a rapid depletion of old oil fields in Western Siberia, while new developments in Eastern Siberia are significantly hampered by natural conditions and lack of access to Western technologies. As a result, last year saw a reduction in the commissioning of new wells by major russian companies such as “Tatneft”, “Lukoil”, “Rosneft” and “Gazprom Neft”.

In addition, the price of russian Urals oil is expected to be decreasing   at least until the end of 2025. The reason is the decision of OPEC+ to increase oil production by 411 thousand barrels a day. This means that russia will receive significantly less income from oil and gas exports.

According to the optimistic forecasts of the pro-kremlin center for macroeconomic analysis, the price of Urals, which is traditionally traded at a discount, will not exceed $61 in 2025. However, under the most likely scenario, its price will fluctuate between $47 and $49. This is the lowest level in the last two years and by 30 % lower than the one envisaged in the state budget of the rf.

In this regard, the rf’s  government has already lowered its forecast of a foreign trade surplus to $87 billion. This means that since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, russia's foreign trade balance has decreased almost 4 times.

In  absolute terms, in 2023-2025, russia will lose more than $650 billion by  trade direction alone.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, this amount would be enough to finance six times the largest investment projects planned by the kremlin for implementation by 2030.

rf’s foreign trade surplus, bn USD: