A Shortfall of over 25 %: Customs Revenue Failure Undermines russia’s Financial Stability

russia’s federal customs service (FCS) will not be able to meet the ministry of finance’s target for customs revenues to the federal budget for 2025. Head of the agency Viktor Pikalyov has said that instead of the planned $98.8 billion, only $73.7 billion will be transferred to the budget. This means a shortfall of $24.7 billion, or more than 25 % of the plan.

As of October, the FCS had transferred only $55.6 billion, and even with the expected revenues by the end of the year, the figure will remain the lowest in the last five years. Compared to 2024, when customs duties amounted to $90.8 billion, the decline will be about 19 %, or $17.3 billion.

The sharp decline in customs duties signals a systemic weakening of the russian budget’s revenue base. The decline in imports due to the falling domestic demand and the decrease in exports under the pressure of sanctions have led to the depletion of the economy’s import-export potential.

The government is trying to compensate for the losses by raising taxes in 2026. However, this step will inevitably hit investment activity and industrial production, which will only increase the risks of recession.

The failure of customs revenues is yet another indicator of the deep structural problems of russia’s economy, which is losing its ability to generate stable revenues even from traditional sources.