According to Estonian Foreign Intelligence, moscow Is Aligning Itself with Beijing, but Remains Distrustful

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Estonia has assessed russia’s cooperation with China after 2022. In particular, the Service points out the increased cooperation between the countries in the fields of energy, trade, finance, transport, science, and technology. Although China is formally trying to maintain the image of a “neutral” party, it has in fact become one of russia’s key economic partners, helping the rf to partially mitigate the effects of Western sanctions.

According to Estonian analysts, moscow is gradually being forced to adapt to its dependence on China. While at the beginning of the war against Ukraine, the russian leadership feared economic asymmetry in its relations with Beijing, the kremlin is now increasingly aligning its policies with China’s global initiatives. russian geopolitical projects, in particular the concept of the “Great Eurasian Partnership”, are effectively being integrated with China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative, which underscores China’s growing role as a dominant partner.

China and russia are also actively coordinating their actions on the international stage, promoting an alternative vision of the world order in which the role of Western democracies, in their opinion, should be significantly reduced. They cooperate in international organizations and at the same time develop their own formats, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS+. In fact, this is an attempt to form political and economic mechanisms that would allow them to bypass or weaken the influence of Western institutions.

In parallel, military-technological cooperation is expanding. Although a formal military alliance between the countries is unlikely at this stage, they regularly conduct joint military exercises and develop cooperation in the field of modern technologies – from artificial intelligence to satellite communications.

At the same time, there is still a certain degree of mistrust between the parties. Both countries are aware of the risk that their partner may try to reach an agreement with the USA behind the other’s back.