belarus’ Budget for 2026: Spending Growth Amid Industrial Collapse

The ministry of finance of belarus has published the parameters of the consolidated budget for 2026. Revenues will grow by 17% to 92.08 billion rubles, expenditures – by 15.8% to 97.19 billion. A deficit is expected.

A telling sign is that the share of tax revenues has fallen from 85.7% to 83%, while the share of free revenues from foreign countries has jumped from 5.6% to 7.2%. In 2020, this figure was only 1.4%. In fact, we are talking about subsidies from moscow – such dependence on the “donor” carries systemic risks for minsk’s sovereignty.

Expenditures on law enforcement agencies and courts will increase to 6.8 billion rubles – their share has increased from 6.7% to 7%. Defense spending is 4.6 billion, or 4.7% of the budget.

Against this background, the real sector of the economy is collapsing. In January, industrial production fell by 3.4%, manufacturing plummeted by 7.5%. Inventories grew by 800 million rubles over the month and set another historical record – almost 90% of monthly production. Even in the COVID year, the situation was better. GDP fell by 1.2% over the month.

lukashenko acknowledged the crisis, having called for “urgent measures to halt the decline in industry and unload warehouses”. There were no specifics behind this call. The traditional russian market is choke-full: russia’s economy is itself heading for crisis. There are no other markets for belarusian goods.

Agriculture will not save the country: the situation is critical with the reduction in livestock numbers, chronic debts of agricultural enterprises, and state support to cover losses already amounting to 2.1 billion rubles – and that’s without taking into account preferential loans.