belarus Is Rapidly Losing Its Population

As of January 1, 2026, belarus’ population stood at 9,056,080. Over the course of the year, the country lost more than 53,000 people. And this is only what the official statistics acknowledges – the massive exodus following the 2020 protests was never reflected in those figures.

The country is rapidly aging. Nearly every fourth belarusian is past working age: this demographics now accounts for 24.5% of the population. The economically active population makes up 58.4%, while children and youth account for only 17.1%.

The birth rate is steadily declining. In 2024, 58,900 children were born in belarus – by a third fewer than five years ago. The total fertility rate has fallen to 1.081 children per woman, compared to the minimum 2.1 needed for population replacement.

Meanwhile, the demographic base is irreversibly shrinking. The number of women aged 25–34 – those of childbearing age – has dropped by nearly a quarter over five years: from 724,000 to 551,000. Even if belarusian families wanted to have more children, the potential for doing so has already been undermined.

UN forecasts are pessimistic. By mid-century, the country’s population may shrink to 7.2 million, and by 2100 – to 4.4 million people.

Compared to the European Union, where the demographic decline remains gradual and is partially offset by migration and higher birth rates, the situation in belarus appears catastrophic. The drop in birth rates, the decline in the number of women of reproductive age, and the population outflow have struck simultaneously – the country is dying out rapidly and systemically.