China Is Rapidly Losing Population: Birth Rate Has Reached Critical Level

According to the results of 2025, China’s population decreased by 3.39 million people, which indicates a deepening demographic crisis. The number of births decreased by 17% – from 9.54 million to 7.92 million, while the number of deaths increased by 3.47% and reached 11.31 million.

The natural population decline increased almost threefold, from -1.39 million in 2024 to -3.39 million in 2025. The estimated total fertility rate fell to a record low of 0.98 children per woman, which is significantly below the level of simple population replacement (2.08).

Among the reasons – the high cost of living (housing, education), career ambitions of young people, consequences of the “one-child” policy, changing social norms (late marriages), and an aging population.

In the coming years, the annual population decline may exceed 5 million people, while birth rates may set new anti-records.

The UN forecasts that by 2050, China’s population will decline to 1.26 billion, and by the end of the century, it may more than halve – to 633 million.