From Shops to Moonshine: Falling Incomes Push russians Toward Shadow Alcohol

The decline in official alcohol sales in russia, which the authorities are trying to present as a positive social trend, actually masks serious structural problems. According to rosalkogoltabakkontrol, sales of alcoholic beverages fell by 9.3% in 2025, while the number of alcohol shops and the volume of legal alcohol production also declined. However, this does not mean that russians are giving up alcohol en masse.

The decline is first of all in the legal segment, while consumers are moving into the shadows. Moonshining is becoming increasingly widespread, displacing official retail sales.

There are about 2.5 million moonshine stills in russia, and the annual production of moonshine can reach 200 million liters, a significant part of which is sold illegally. This indicates that the state has lost control over part of the consumer market.

The situation has been exacerbated by a sharp increase in excise taxes: at the beginning of 2026, rates rose by 8.9–31%, with the largest increase in the wine sector. Against the background of falling incomes and economic decline, this is stimulating further shadowing of the market. In 2026, sales of legal alcohol in russia will decline by another 9–10%, which can hardly be considered a sign of social recovery.