Illusion of Stability: the Decline in Imports Masking the Deterioration of russia’s Trade

The volume of goods supplied to russia through so-called parallel import mechanisms is rapidly declining, exposing the vulnerability of russia’s economy amid sanctions and tighter domestic regulation. In January–November 2025, imports under this scheme almost halved, having amounted  to US$20.9 billion compared to US$37.9 billion a year earlier, which corresponds to a 45% decline.

The “parallel import” mechanism, legalized by the government of the rf in March 2022 to circumvent restrictions imposed by Western rights holders, was intended to compensate for the shortage of foreign goods. However, its effectiveness is rapidly declining. Average monthly imports in 2025 fell to $2 billion from approximately $4 billion at the initial stage of the scheme.

The key factor in the decline was regulatory decisions by russian authorities. In 2025, cosmetics and perfumes from “unfriendly” countries were removed from the list of goods allowed for “parallel” imports. The ministry of industry and trade of the rf also announced the phased exclusion of clothing and household appliances, which, according to the ministry’s assessment, can be replaced by products from “friendly” countries or russian analogues.

Additional pressure on importers arose at the end of 2025 after putin’s statements about the need to fight “black” imports through Kazakhstan. Customs authorities were given the right to confiscate cargoes in the absence of a complete set of documents, which led to a sharp increase in inspections. By November 2025, up to 10% of all russian imports had been detained at Kazakhstan’s border, causing disruptions in the product range, primarily for sellers on marketplaces.

The trend towards a reduction in “parallel imports” is expected to continue in 2026. This increasingly points to russia’s narrowing access to external commodity markets amid sanctions, falling household purchasing power, and growing regulatory and logistical barriers. The temporary decline in demand for foreign currency is supporting the ruble exchange rate, but this “strengthening” is more a symptom of the deterioration of foreign trade and the general economic downturn than a sign of stability.