NPP without russia. Why Astana Chose Beijing

Kazakhstan has signed an agreement with the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) to build the country’s first nuclear power plant for $5.47 billion. By 2035, two 2.4 GW HPR-1000 reactors should be launched. The CNNC has offered half the price russia wanted, control of the fuel cycle and access to technology. This is a blow to “rosatom”, which due to financial insolvency and sanctions is losing ground. russia cannot finance three CHP plants in Kazakhstan, and its reactors VVYeR-1200 have a dubious reputation. Presumably, the rf will agree to the processing of waste from the new NPP.

This is a strategic step for Kazakhstan. “Kazatomprom” is the largest uranium producer in the world with the second largest reserves after Australia (15 % versus 28 %). russia controls 41 % of the market of enrichment, but reduces the share in Kazakhstan’s fields and blocks the development of independent infrastructure.

The choice in favor of China is a question of sovereignty. It minimizes sanctions risks, speeds up the implementation of the project and allows to avoid conflicts. Beijing is at the same time expanding influence in Central Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative and the SCO. This opens for Kazakhstan the way to the global nuclear market, avoiding the mistakes of cooperation with the rf, which would cost billions and lost decades.

China is gradually squeezing out russia from key sectors of Kazakhstan: energy, infrastructure and technology. russia sells assets due to sanctions and financial difficulties. In December 2024, Uranium One sold shares in three joint ventures with “Kazatomprom”. In march 2025, China opened a railway route to Europe, bypassing the rf. The number of Chinese plants in the country is also growing, and Chinese companies are driving out russian contractors.