Pro-kremlin Economists Admit: russia’s Economy Is on the Brink of Collapse

Leading russian economic institutions – the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, the higher school of economics, and the central bank of the rf – have confirmed that the country’s economy is on the verge of stagflation. It is significant that the recognition of crisis trends comes from structures affiliated with the kremlin.

The composite leading indicator of the economy entering recession since November 2025 has exceeded 0.44, with a critical threshold of 0.12. At the same time, the symmetric indicator of recovery from recession fell to 0.05 in November 2025, compared to 0.10 in October, remaining well below the critical level of 0.35. This means not only a high probability of recession, but also extremely low chances of a quick recovery – analysts warn of the risk of a protracted downturn lasting more than a year.

The industrial sector is showing a steady decline. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI index for January 2026 remains below 50 points, in the reduction zone. Profitability in industry has fallen from 20% to 12% since September 2024 and continues to decline.

Consumer sentiment is collapsing. According to “Levada Centre”, the economic expectations index fell to 113 points in January 2026, compared to 140 in 2024. The consumer sentiment index returned to the levels of the end of 2022 – 98 points, reflecting the prevalence of pessimism among russians.

The baseline scenario for 2026, according to estimates by russian institutions themselves, is a further slowdown amid weak GDP growth and declining investment, with a real risk of technical recession.