russia – the Main Source of Military and Hybrid Threat to Latvia

The Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) of Latvia has published its annual report for 2024, in which it identified russia as the main source of military and hybrid threat. In the report, the Intelligence Service forecasts a long-term confrontation between russia and NATO and increased risks to Latvia’s security after the end or suspension of the russian-Ukrainian war.

According to the MIDD, russia’s direct military invasion of Latvia in 2025-2026 is unlikely. However, in the medium and long term, the threat is growing due to the rf’s military reform, strategic orientation to NATO’s eastern flank, and gradual depletion of the West’s attention to the region. The MIDD points out that in 2025, at least 40 % of the federal budget of the rf will be allocated to defense and national security. This is a sign of systemic militarization and reorientation of the economy towards war – despite the crisis in other sectors.

As part of the reform of the russian armed forces,  in 2024, the Western military district was divided into the leningrad (area of responsibility – Baltic and Scandinavian countries) and moscow (area of responsibility – Central Europe and Ukraine). New units and formations have also been formed in karelia and kaliningrad, and a new army corps is being created in the border regions.

The MIDD also emphasizes the intensification of the activities of the general staff of the russian armed forces of the rf, in particular: preparation and implementation of sabotage and subversive actions, including arson attacks on Latvian enterprises; collecting intelligence on NATO infrastructure; attempts to assassinate individuals; recruitment of Latvian citizens without obvious ties to the rf.

Besides, Latvian Intelligence claims that belarus is assisting russia in intelligence operations, including providing transit support for russian special services.