russia Cannot Maintain Its Ports in the Arctic

moscow’s plans to turn the Northern Sea Route (NSR) into a full-fledged transport artery are hampered by basic infrastructure deficiencies. Over the next five years alone, ports along the NSR will need dredging totaling approximately 60 million cubic meters. Similar work is also needed in ports in other regions of the rf, which only compounds the scale of the problem.

Previously, moscow systemically relied on foreign contractors who had the necessary fleet and technology for large-scale dredging. The sanctions regime has effectively blocked this channel. russia has not created any alternatives in the form of its own capabilities: statements about the design and construction of dredgers at the admiralty shipyards in st. petersburg remain declarations without practical results.

The actual figures are telling. In 2025, using its own resources,  russia managed  to dredge only about 2.2 million cubic meters in all of the country’s ports. Given the stated needs, this is a marginal amount that does not change the situation systemically.

Theoretically, moscow is counting on China’s participation in the development of northern port infrastructure. However, Beijing’s interests are fundamentally different. The PRC is interested in continuous transit along the entire Northern Sea Route, rather than in the development of individual russian ports as logistics hubs. In the coming years, this means a simple reality: large ships will pass by without stopping.

Even if China agrees to participate in dredging, it will be Beijing that will determine where and in which ports it will dredge. For moscow, this means a loss of control over spatial development, the inability to provide targeted support to individual regions, and de facto dependence on external influence.

Overall, the situation demonstrates a systemic gap between the rf’s stated arctic ambitions and its actual capabilities.