russia Has Lost Its Foothold in the Red Sea

russia has announced suspension of agreements on the creation of a naval logistics base in Port Sudan, citing the escalation of the civil conflict in the country. The project envisaged the deployment of up to 300 military servicemen and four ships for 25 years with the possibility of extension.

The suspension of the project was a significant strategic blow to moscow. Port Sudan was seen as a key element for russia’s permanent presence in the Indian Ocean, control of the Red Sea, and access to the Suez Canal area. The base was to become russia’s first full-fledged naval facility in Africa after the collapse of the USSR.

However, even if the project is implemented, the capabilities of the russian fleet remain limited by the war against Ukraine. This is evident in the sharp decline in activity in the Mediterranean Sea: in recent months, it has been reduced to occasional sorties by a single Project 877/636 submarine. The reason cited is the loss of support from the port of Tartus in Syria, which provided repairs and logistics for the group. For comparison, in 2018, russia maintained at least two submarines and about ten surface ships there.

Against this background, the kremlin is shifting its focus to the Baltic Sea and the Arctic. The suspension of the project in Port Sudan demonstrates the rf’s limited resources for expanding its foreign military infrastructure in wartime and weakens its position in Africa.