russia Is Losing the Central Asian Energy Market

With the support of the World Bank, Central Asian countries are launching a project to create a single energy space, which is expected to reshape the regional electricity market. The REMIT program is designed to last 10 years and involves integrating the hydropower capacities of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with the thermal power generation of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as with solar and wind power plants, based on the principle of energy synergy. The total cost of the system exceeds $1 billion, of which $143 million has already been financed.

Until recently, russia was considered one of the key players in the Central Asian energy market and claimed the role of coordinator of integration processes. Under its patronage, the eurasian economic union promoted the idea of creating a joint energy center in the region. However, russia’s war against Ukraine, international sanctions, and the lack of modern technologies in the main beneficiaries of the eaeu – russia and belarus – have effectively derailed these plans. The start of work, scheduled for 2025, has been postponed until at least 2027.

Minister of energy and infrastructure of the eurasian economic commission Arzybek Kozhoshev acknowledges that even 2030 may only be an approximate date for the start of the project. The prospects for the russian-eurasian energy center itself remain uncertain due to the lack of a free gas market in russia and significant differences in regulatory approaches between participating countries.

Against this background, the REMIT initiative is more pragmatic and institutionally secure. According to World Bank estimates, the cumulative economic effect of its implementation by 2050 could reach $15 billion, making the project one of the most ambitious infrastructure developments in Central Asia in recent decades.