russia Is Rapidly Losing Its Arms Market

CEO of “rostec” Sergey Chemezov has acknowledged the further collapse of russian arms exports. Until 2022, the rf had been receiving about $14 billion annually, but in 2024, revenues declined dramatically. Data from the Jamestown Foundation confirm the rapid decline: $12.5 billion in 2021, $8 billion in 2022, $3 billion in 2023, and only $1 billion in 2024.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)’s estimates, russia’s share of the global arms market in 2024 shrank from 21 % to 7.8 %. The geography of supplies is also narrowing: from 47 countries in 2018-2022 to 33 in 2024, with most of them being countries in Asia and Oceania. The largest buyers – India, China, and Kazakhstan – are also reducing their purchases.

Despite Chemezov’s statements about a “future recovery” and an order book of over $60 billion, a significant portion of the contracts is unconfirmed and depends on customers with low solvency. Without russian credit, these deals remain political declarations rather than real exports.

To the “Dubai Air Show 2025”, “rosoboronexport” brought 850 items, but almost all of the “latest” models turned out to be mock-ups. This demonstrates the depth of technological backwardness and the shortage of combat-ready products.

The consequences are obvious: russia’s defense industry is losing markets, technologically degrading, and becoming increasingly dependent on customers from Africa and the Middle East. In the near future, the decline in exports will only accelerate.