russian Companies Have Lost Faith in Their Own Economy

russian businesses are no longer building. A survey conducted by the central bank of the rf among 11,500 companies has revealed that the balance of assessments regarding investment activity has turned negative, standing at –4.8 percentage points. Negative assessments predominate, and this is a systemic signal.

The worst picture is in mining and quarrying, where the balance of assessments has plummeted to –24.4 percentage points, and in industry (–11.9), in particular, in manufacturing (–5.6). Some sectors – consumer goods, energy, water supply, agriculture, and retail – are still in positive territory, though growth rates are slowing down there as well.

This time, businesses are complaining not so much about expensive loans – this factor has taken a back seat – as about uncertainty (23.6%) and poor demand (20.4%). In other words: entrepreneurs do not know what tomorrow will bring and do not see potential customers.

As for the structure of investments, money is going not toward expansion but toward maintaining what already exists. In 2025, the vast majority of investments were directed toward preserving existing assets. New projects are being implemented almost exclusively where there is government support or import substitution programs.

A separate issue is the quality of investments from previous years. A significant portion of investments made between 2022 and 2024 were of a forced nature: import substitution following the departure of foreign companies, and the restart of abandoned assets.

The central bank of the rf has, in fact, marked the moment when the russian economy definitively shifted its behavior from development to survival. Market incentives for investment are fading. They are being replaced by government subsidies and forced investments dictated by the reality of sanctions.