russia’s Trade Is Shrinking: Exports Are Falling, Modernization Is Stalling

At the end of 2025, russia’s foreign trade showed further deterioration amid unfavorable price situation and continuing restrictions. The key factors were the decline in global prices for energy carriers and the impact of oil production quotas under the OPEC+ agreements, which directly affected the main source of foreign exchange earnings.

The share of fuel and energy products in the export structure decreased  to 54.9 % from 61.6 % a year earlier, which only underscores the weakening of the energy sector. An additional negative signal was the 10.3 % drop in exports of food products and agricultural raw materials, indicating a loss of position even in segments that were previously considered relatively stable.

The decline in imports was first of all  due to an 8.7 % decrease in imports of investment goods – machinery, equipment, and vehicles. This directly indicates a slowdown in investment activity and a deterioration in the prospects for industrial modernization. Against this background, the growth in imports of consumer goods, particularly food (+14.2 %) and chemical products (+2.6 %), appears to be a forced compensation for internal imbalances rather than a sign of economic recovery.

China remains russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for about 27 % of exports and 45 % of imports, which is in line with  levels of the year 2024. At the same time, bilateral trade with China has seen a 7.6 % decline in oil exports and an 11 % decline in coal exports, further weakening moscow’s position even in the latter’s  key area.

In general, these indicators reflect the gradual and painful structural transformation of russia’s  economy under pressure from Western sanctions. A significant decline in oil and gas exports reduces foreign exchange earnings and increases the vulnerability of the federal budget to market fluctuations. The growth in exports of chemical products and metals is limited and temporary in nature and cannot compensate for the losses in the energy sector. At the same time, the decline in imports of manufacturing equipment will hamper industrial renewal and delay economic recovery. Increased dependence on Beijing only reinforces the asymmetrical model of foreign trade, in which China is increasingly acting not as a market but as the main supplier of industrial products to russia.