The Fiscal Crisis in russia Is Hitting Imports and Fueling Inflation

russia began 2026 with another fiscal improvisation: against the background of the failure of the federal budget revenue plan, the government revised the tariff rates for customs clearance of imports. The decision took effect on January 1 and was a direct response to the sharp drop in federal customs service fees, which fell short of 20% of planned revenues for the year – the worst result since 2020.

The new model provides for a sharp increase in the burden on importers. For small and medium-sized shipments, customs duties have increased by 15%, while for large shipments worth more than $128,000, the fixed rate has been increased by 147% at once – from $380 to $940 per declaration. Radio electronics has been hit particularly hard: for chips, microcircuits, telecommunications equipment, and computer components, a single fee of $940 has been set, regardless of the size of the shipment. In a number of cases, this means a 2.5-fold increase in tariffs compared to 2025, and even mass-produced consumer goods with electronic components may be subject to the new rates.

The economic consequences are predictably negative. Additional costs for container processing – averaging around $500 – are reflected in a 1.5% increase in consumer prices. High fees for small batches of microelectronics effectively block the import of samples for testing and certification, pushing the industry toward technological degradation. Businesses are forced to either artificially increase batch sizes, sacrificing delivery speed, or give up narrow and specialized product lines due to their unprofitability.

In fact, this is the kremlin’s yet another attempt to patch up budget holes at the expense of businesses. Against the background of declining export revenues, the state is shifting the fiscal burden to imports and the domestic market, deliberately creating additional inflationary pressure.