Ukraine and the World – Against russia’s Aggression. Sanctions in Action

“In accordance with its December 2025 decision to grant Ukraine a support loan of EUR 90 billion for 2026 and 2027, the European Council welcomes the adoption of this loan by the co-legislators and expects the first tranche for Ukraine by early April,” say the European Council’s conclusions following discussions on the Ukrainian issue.

“We will deliver on this, one way or another,” President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stressed regarding the EU’s EUR 90 billion loan to Ukraine for 2026–2027.

President of France Emmanuel Macron emphasized after the conclusion of the European Council summit: “The unanimous agreement of the European Council from last December regarding the EUR 90 billion loan to Ukraine must be upheld and implemented without delay, in accordance with the principles of loyal cooperation.”

President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides has pointed out that failure to fulfill commitments regarding political decisions already adopted, in particular regarding the provision of a loan to Ukraine for 2026–2027, negatively affects trust in the EU.

The mandate of the international Joint Investigation Team (JIT) “Ukraine Case” has been extended for another two years. Currently, the JIT unites Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Slovakia. The team also includes Eurojust, Europol, and, for the first time in history, the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. Over the four years of the full-scale invasion, law enforcement agencies have documented over 240,000 crimes of the rf’s aggression against Ukraine, of which over 210,000 are war crimes.

The European Union has announced the allocation of EUR 12 million for the development of agriculture and rural areas, as well as the implementation of food safety reforms in Ukraine.

Germany’s federal government has introduced temporary simplifications to export procedures for certain types of weapons to Ukraine and Gulf countries, in particular for those for strengthening air and maritime defense.

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President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has stated that the EC does not plan to revise the established deadlines for phasing out liquefied natural gas from russia. She added that the phase-out of russian energy carriers will continue even if an energy shortage arises in Europe.

President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda has stated that the EU must not only adopt a decision on the 20th package of sanctions against russia as soon as possible, but also begin discussions on the 21st package, which could target russia’s largest energy companies. “First and foremost, I am referring to “rosatom”, as well as “lukoil”, he said.

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has published an exception to the license issued last week, which prohibits the supply of russian oil to Cuba.

The probability of an economic recession in russia by 2027 is assessed as high. The key indicator – the composite leading indicator – has significantly exceeded the critical level. While a value of 0.18 is considered the threshold, in December 2025 it reached 0.49, indicating a risk of a downturn over the next 12 months. A 1% decline in GDP in the first half of the year is sufficient to confirm a recession by year-end. And the dynamics of russia’s economy is already showing a slowdown.

Three-quarters of small and medium-sized businesses in russia have faced a lack of the profits necessary for growth. In February, this figure stood at 57%. Only 8.3% of respondents are willing to allocate funds to expand production (compared to 29% a month earlier). Respondents cite low demand (42%), high borrowing costs (33%), and rising expenses (14%) as the main barriers to business growth.

Small businesses in russia, in an attempt to survive after tax hikes, avoid noncash settlements. Since the beginning of this year, small retailers and service providers have begun actively offering customers discounts for cash payments or have stopped accepting noncash payments altogether.

In February 2026, russia’s new-construction market plummeted. The number of registered shared-equity contracts in the 40 largest regions fell by 17.9% compared to last year. In cities with populations over one million, the decline was even steeper – minus 22%. moscow set a new record low: sales there fell by 51%.

In 2025, russians cut back on their purchases of clothing and footwear in shops: sales fell by 11% compared to the previous year. The average receipt amount increased by 5%. This was due to a 10–15% rise in prices. Sales are declining as russians tighten belts and refresh their wardrobes less frequently.

Beer in russia became by 15% more expensive over the year due to rising excise taxes. The price of some popular foreign alcoholic beverages (brought through parallel imports) has increased by 20–35%.

In russia, the price of ground coffee rose by 19.2% over the year. Whole-bean coffee rose by 16%. Instant coffee saw the smallest price increase. Its cost rose by 13.6%.

The net profit of the “en+ group” holding company, which specializes in aluminum production and hydropower, fell by 82.6% in 2025.

“lukoil”’s net loss in 2025 amounted to 1.06 trillion rubles, compared to 851.5 billion rubles in net profit the previous year.

The ministry of finance of the rf has proposed changing the VAT rates for imported goods which russians order on marketplaces – 7% starting in 2027, 14% in 2028, and 22% in 2029. For its part, the ministry of industry and trade proposes introducing the full VAT rate on foreign goods starting in 2027.

russia’s ministry of industry and trade is sending out notifications en mass regarding the imposition of fines for missing deadlines on research and development work under the state program “development of the defense-industrial complex”. The payment of such fines may lead to the bankruptcy of companies carrying out work on state defense contracts. For example, the “specialized design and technology bureau for electronic systems” was fined 274 million rubles for a six-year delay in developing a microchip for the defense sector.

Farmers of Siberia have lost over 1.5 billion rubles due to the mass culling of cows. Since February, up to 90,000 animals have been killed in villages.

The tomsk city council denied activists permission to hold a meeting against the blocking of the Telegram messenger, stating that expressing opinions about the blocking online would be considered the dissemination of incorrect information.

According to the Levada Center’s survey, lack of money remains the main problem for russians. When asked “what currently makes life most difficult for your family”, 48% cited “low income”.

The rising number of people with diabetes in russia may lead to an epidemic of the disease. The incidence of obesity, which often accompanies diabetes, has increased by 42% in russia over the past four years. In 2025, deputy minister of healthcare of the rf yevgeny kamkin stated that approximately 6 million russians have undiagnosed forms of diabetes. He pointed out that the number of russians with undiagnosed diabetes is nearly equal to the number of patients with a confirmed diagnosis.

By the end of 2025, russia had fallen to 79th place out of 147 in the international happiness ranking, which is calculated by experts from the UN and the Gallup research center. Having lost 13 positions over the year, russia showed its second-worst result in 11 years of observations (only 2021 was worse) and found itself on par with countries such as Venezuela (80th place) and Libya (81st place). russia fares even worse when it comes to basic human freedoms. In the corresponding sub-ranking, the rf ranked 112th – below Gambia (108th) and Somalia (103rd). belarus was excluded from the ranking three years ago due to the lack of data.

Lithuania is not changing its position on belarus and will continue to support sanctions against minsk. “It should be noted that we recently secured an extension of EU sanctions against belarus for another 12 months. During this period, there is neither the possibility nor the political will to revise the sanctions,” said President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda.