Veterans of the War Against Ukraine May Become the Main Threat to putin’s Regime

There is growing concern in the kremlin that the return of tens of thousands of soldiers and former prisoners from the front will provoke a surge in crime and social destabilization. The situation is already being compared to the 1990s, when veterans of the Afghan war formed gangs and mafia groups.

russian authorities acknowledge that the demobilization of participants in the war against Ukraine carries serious internal risks. According to the kremlin’s estimates, veterans may become a catalyst for criminal and political destabilization capable of shaking the system built around personal loyalty to putin.

The problem lies not only in the psychological trauma suffered at the front or the criminal past of a significant portion of the military, but also in the sharp contrast between frontline pay and the standard of living in peacetime. Salaries and bonuses for military personnel in the combat zone are times higher than the average income in the country. Returning to the reality of low wages and a devastated economy, veterans could become a source of social unrest.

The situation is complicated by the participation in the war of tens of thousands of convicts. According to the federal penitentiary service, 120,000 to 180,000 prisoners were sent to the front. A significant number of them have already returned to russia’s cities, where the number of serious crimes involving individuals with military status is on the rise.

Since 2023, military courts have received at least 989 cases under articles on murder and intentional infliction of grievous bodily harm resulting in death. The number of convictions for such crimes has risen sharply: in 2022, there were 38; in 2023 – already 266; in 2024 – 346; and in just nine months of 2025, the courts considered 377 new cases.

The authorities are responding by tightening repressive measures. The federal penitentiary service has been given the right to make wider use of special means against prisoners, from batons and stun guns to dogs and water cannons. Formally, this is for the safety of personnel, but in reality, it is to maintain control over increasingly aggressive groups of former prisoners and military personnel.

The return from the front of people who have become accustomed to violence and impunity could turn into a new internal war for the kremlin. While at first these veterans were the regime’s mainstay, over time they may become the force that will destroy russia from within.