Activity of russia’s “Shadow Fleet”: October Statistics

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine continues to monitor the activities of the rf’s “shadow fleet,” analyzing all changes related to pressure of sanctions and attempts to circumvent restrictions.

In October 2025, 140 tankers carrying oil and petroleum products left russia’s ports, exporting a total of 15.97 million tons (116.9 million barrels). Of those, 84 vessels belong to the russian “shadow fleet”, 72 of which are under sanctions. Another 56 vessels are not part of it, but 15 of them are also under restrictions.

The main destinations were India (7.75 million tons, 72 voyages), China (4.77 million tons, 49 voyages), and Türkiye (1.49 million tons, 16 voyages). The largest volumes of exports were transported through the Baltic and Far Eastern ports of the rf.

Following US sanctions against “Lukoil” and “Rosneft”, Chinese state-owned companies PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil suspended purchases of russian seaborne oil due to the risk of secondary restrictions. Private Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, which is under EU and British sanctions, also refused new contracts. The refusals covered about 400,000 barrels per day, or up to 45 % of russian exports to China, first of all ESPO crude oil.

In Türkiye, the STAR and Tupras refineries have begun to shift their focus away from russian oil. In December, STAR expects deliveries from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries (77–129 thousand barrels per day), while Tupras is increasing imports of Iraqi crude oil to 141 thousand barrels per day.

The decrease in Chinese purchases and the reorientation of Türkiye’s refineries are increasing logistics costs and pressure on russia’s oil exports. In October, petroleum products supplies fell to 1.9 million barrels per day – a 17-month low, while there is a shortage of petrol and diesel within the country. Railway exports of petrol declined by 80 % in the first half of October.