300,000 Vacancies and Minimal Reserves: Demographics Are Putting Pressure on belarus’ Economy

The rb’s labor market is entering a new phase with an obvious imbalance: demand for labor is growing faster than the country is able to meet it. At the beginning of 2021, employers were looking for 72,000 employees, and by September 2025, the number of vacancies exceeded 193,000. About 70 % of these positions are in blue-collar professions, with the greatest shortages observed in industry, construction, transport, trade, education, and medicine. Formally, staffing levels remain high – over 95 % – but the trend is clear: reserves are running out.

Demographic processes only exacerbate the problem. The birth rate in the country has declined to a historic low: in 2024, 58,900 children were born, half as many as in 2016. This is a record decline, which means a long-term reduction in the labor force. Already, almost every fifth  worker has reached or is approaching retirement age.

Official statistics shows a high level of employment – 84.5 % of the working-age population,  and unemployment of only 2.6 %. This creates an illusion of stability, but in reality means a lack of reserves. The authorities are forced to recruit pensioners and disabled people and even conduct campaigns against  “parasites”.  In 2025, the number of working pensioners reached 470,000, and of working disabled people – 72,000.

Over the past decade, the number of employed people has decreased by 86,000 in 2016–2020 and by another 152,500 from 2021 to mid-2025. At this, more than half a million belarusians of working age have left the country, including entrepreneurs, businesspeople, and workers. This factor has not been taken into consideration in the state program “Balanced Labor Market” for 2026-2030, and there are no plans to return them.

The authorities count on importing labor. Over the five-year period, it is planned to attract at least 50,000 foreigners. Already, the number of foreigners with residence permits exceeds 231,000, and the influx of labor migrants is growing: in the first half of 2025, their number increased from 12,000 to 21,000. In 2024, 33,800 foreigners arrived, compared to only 13,400 in 2023.

Despite its optimistic wording, the strategy is an attempt to postpone resolving the problem. Demographic decline, labor outflow, and structural imbalances have no quick solutions. The labor shortage will only grow, and even the influx of foreigners will not compensate for the scale of the losses.