Against the Background of the Fuel Crisis in the rf, belarus Is Restricting Fuel Supplies to russia

russia continues to face a fuel crisis: petrol shortages are forcing regional authorities to introduce ration cards, while  wholesale prices have risen by 8 % since the beginning of August. The ban on petrol exports imposed by the government of the rf in early August has not stabilized the market.

belarus, which could partially compensate for the shortage, is acting cautiously. Demand for belarusian petroleum products in the rf increased in the second half of August, but belarusian refineries have limited capacity: annual production capacity is only 3–4 million tons of petrol, of which 2 million tons are consumed domestically. Monthly fuel consumption in the rf is 3 million tons.

belarus’ economic logic also limits supplies to the rf. It is more profitable to export belarusian petrol to international markets – China, India, and Africa – where prices range from $1,300 to $1,900 for a  ton, than to   the rf  which offers less than a thousand US dollars. Even during the previous fuel crisis in March 2024, minsk supplied russia with only 3,000 tons of petrol, which accounted for 0.1 % of monthly demand.