Analysts Close to the kremlin Predict a Prolonged Decline in russia’s Economy

russia’s economy is rapidly moving toward recession, and this is already being acknowledged by analytical structures close to the kremlin. According to estimates by the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, which operates within the russian government’s orbit, if current trends continue, the recession will almost certainly begin by July 2026 – a scenario that is virtually impossible to avoid.

While at the beginning of 2025 the main risk triggers were the central bank’s tight policy and a record-high discount rate, now even its gradual reduction does not change the overall picture. The likelihood of a recession is growing, pointing to deeper, structural problems: a decline in business confidence, a slowdown in economic activity, and a weakening of domestic demand. The consensus among russian analysts is clear – under the current conditions of tight monetary policy, the economy is doomed to decline.

The signs of deterioration are only getting stronger. The indicator of recovery from recession in October dropped from 0.345 to 0.1, which is significantly below the threshold level of 0.35 and directly indicates the risk of a prolonged recession lasting more than a year. Among the key reasons – the cumulative effect of the strengthening of the ruble, which is hitting the trade balance, and the expected slowdown in the global economy.

The experts acknowledge, that even a hypothetical end to the war against Ukraine will not be a lifeline. On the contrary, a reduction in military orders, a decline in household incomes, and a decline in industrial production can only deepen the crisis. In 2026, additional fiscal pressure will force the government of the rf to reallocate resources in favor of “priority” sectors, preserving imbalances and undermining the remnants of growth.

The conclusion, which is becoming increasingly difficult to hide even in russia itself, is obvious: the decline is systemic. Monetary maneuvers no longer solve anything, and there are virtually no sources left for economic recovery.