belarus Does Not Have the Funds to Repay Its Debts

belarus’ foreign exchange reserves appear substantial on paper – $13.7 billion as of November 1 – but there is a catastrophic lack of liquidity. Only $5.3 billion is available for immediate external payments; about $7 billion is in gold, which will have to be sold at a discount due to sanctions; another $1.4 billion is in IMF special drawing rights, which are effectively unavailable for payments. Thus, the real resources for settlements are limited and vulnerable.

In 2026, debt payments will exceed these capabilities. The rb will need to allocate 17.7 billion belarusian rubles for repayment and 6 billion – for servicing its obligations, which amounts to about $8 billion at the current exchange rate. Because of this gap, reserves could quickly be depleted if only domestic sources are relied upon.

Official recognition of this risk came from minister of finance Yuriy Seliverstov: the regime plans to attract additional resources from russia to cover the deficit. This position contradicts the national bank’s recent statement about “self-sufficiency” and intentions to use internal reserves, in particular the planned reduction of reserves by $4.5 billion.

Even if the kremlin agrees to help, moscow’s options are limited: the rf’s budget has a large deficit, and funds for transfers are shrinking. Therefore, the option of a complete “drying up” of belarus’ finances is realistic: the prospect of “there is no money and there will be none” is becoming the baseline scenario for the coming year.