belarus’ Economy Is Approaching Stagnation

The rb’s economy is slowing down amid problems in the russian economy. In January–July 2025, the country’s GDP grew by only 1.3 % year-on-year, against the planned 4.1 %. The main export-oriented sectors – industry, transport, and IT – showed virtually no growth, indicating weak external demand and limited production capacity.

Agriculture is also lagging behind: as of August 1, only 22.3 % of grain crops had been harvested, compared to almost 60 % last year.

The foreign trade balance is deteriorating: in June, the deficit increased by $240 million on a monthly basis due to a decline in exports, particularly of potash. Despite this, the country’s ministry of economy plans to focus on exports, forecasting their growth by 3.7 % next year. However, in the first half of the year, deliveries already declined by the same 3.7 %. Competition in the russian market is intensifying even for local producers, while belarusian companies are losing their last niches in distant markets.

Inflationary pressure is also intensifying: in July, annual inflation was 7.4 %, in August it is expected to be 7.5 %, and in the autumn – 8–9 % against the planned level of 5 %.