belarus Is Losing  Markets: Exports to the  “Far Arc” Have  Decreased by  10 %

The decline in belarusian industry is deepening: in the first eight months of 2025, production decreased by 0.8 %, while July saw a sharp monthly decline of 3.5 %.

The regions with oil refineries were hit the hardest: in Vitebsk region, industry declined by 4.2 %, in Gomel region – by 2.7 %. The problems of russian oil refineries did not create additional opportunities for belarusian plants: they are cutting production due to difficulties in selling fuel at a profitable price.

Sales difficulties are spreading to other sectors. The government of the rb has acknowledged that it is difficult to redirect to other destinations the goods that are not in demand on the russian market. In January–July, exports to countries of  the “Far Arc” declined  by 10 %, with trade with China having decreased significantly.

Additional risks arose after Poland closed its border with the rb. Last year, the EU accounted for one-third of belarusian exports, or $1.4 billion, 64 % of those shipments going through Poland.

Thus, belarusian industry is facing a simultaneous decline in demand on the russian market and restrictions on access to the EU, which exacerbates the country’s overall economic vulnerability.