BfV: russia’s Long-Term Goal Is to Weaken and Discredit European Democracies

In 2025, russia will involve not only representatives of special services, but also government agencies, think tanks and media, IT companies (including the Social Design Agency), as well as individuals (so-called hacktivists) to carry out special operations. This is stated in a new report by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution of Germany (BfV) on threats from russian intelligence services, “Threats of russian Espionage, Sabotage and Disinformation”.

russia’s long-term goal is to weaken and discredit European democracies. The BfV emphasizes that the intensity and scope of the expected activities will depend on the course of the russian-Ukrainian war. However, even if the fighting in Ukraine stops, the kremlin will continue to use vulnerable socio-political topics in Germany to increase its manipulative influence.

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution of Germany has outlined the main directions of russian special services. Among them:

Intelligence activities. Areas of interest: politics, science, economy, military facilities, infrastructure, maritime space (first of all the Baltic Sea). Methods of collecting information: human and technical measures – satellites, spy drones, radio intercepts, cyber attacks, etc;

Subversive activities. Damage to or destruction of critical infrastructure facilities and systems, arson, violence, and attempts on life. To accomplish such tasks, russian special services will continue to recruit agents through social media and messengers on a financial basis;

Spreading disinformation. The aim is to influence public discourse and political decision-making in Germany and Europe. Narratives to be spread by russia: russia’s dominance in the world, the possibility of nuclear escalation, and the spread of russophobia in Germany. Besides, the rf will discredit Ukraine and manipulate the topics of energy, inflation and the economy. According to the BfV, russian intelligence services are creating fake websites of publications such as Spiegel, Stern, FAZ, and government websites to spread disinformation. The German intelligence service draws attention to the growing activity of the propaganda group STORM-1516 (associated with the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the rf), which, on the eve of the parliamentary elections, spread articles and videos through a network of websites, involving pro-russian German politicians (the content was created using AI or actors).

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine forecasts that against the background of the formation of a government coalition in Germany, russia will intensify its attempts to influence the political situation in Germany using hybrid methods. These will include not only information campaigns, but also sabotage and provocations.