Economy of belarus Is Stagnating Due to Integration with the rf

In the first half of 2025, belarus’ GDP grew by only 2.1 %, which is by 2.9 % lower than a year earlier. Inflation reached 7.3 %. The decline is attributed to the shock situation in agriculture (minus 8.1 % year-on-year) and the decline in demand for belarusian goods in russia – a key trading partner that accounts for 60 % of trade. Deliveries  of consumer goods, equipment and lumber to the rf decreased by more than 70 %.

In January-April, the foreign trade deficit increased to $856 million: exports decreased by 0.3 %, while imports increased by 4.7 %. Industrial production grew by only 0.3 %, supported by domestic demand. The stagnation of the russian economy (minus 4 % year-on-year in the first quarter) limits minsk’s financial capacity. The deteriorating balance of payments fuels the risk of a rapid devaluation of the belarusian ruble, which would hit purchasing power and social stability.

Western sanctions are restricting diversification channels, reinforcing structural ties to russian markets, logistics, and financing.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, the minimum growth rate will continue to the end of 2025, by inertia after 2024. In 2026-2027, the crisis will worsen as the population’s incomes decline and the belarusian economy is further drawn into russia’s stagflation orbit.