Every Fourth Company in russia Has Overdue Loans

In October 2025, the corporate sector of the rf entered a phase of rapid deterioration in payment discipline. The volume of overdue debt of legal entities increased by 7.2 % year-on-year and reached $37 billion – the highest level in several years. The total business loan portfolio exceeded $984 billion, almost by 10 % more than last year, indicating a rapid accumulation of debt in all key segments of the economy.

According to the banking sector, 714,000 companies had debts to creditors in October. One in four, or 171,000, already had overdue loans. This indicator shows that the risks of non-payment have become systemic rather than isolated.

The key reason is the record growth in debt burden. Companies spent more than 36 % of their profits on servicing loans, which is a historic high. At the same time, a significant portion of loans is not directed toward investment or development – businesses are increasingly taking out loans to cover old obligations and maintain a minimum level of liquidity. This model effectively tightens the financial noose.

Risks are unevenly distributed across regions. The highest increase in debt over the year was recorded in the North Caucasus (+29 %), Southern (+21 %), and Ural (+13 %) federal districts. However, the largest number of delinquencies accumulated in the Southern and Volga districts (+25 %), as well as in Siberia (+19 %).

More than half (56 %) of all liabilities is concentrated in three sectors: manufacturing, finance, and scientific and technical services. These are the sectors that are most likely to trigger a chain reaction of insolvency.

Given the current dynamics, the baseline scenario for russia’s economy is a further increase in the number of corporate defaults. This will put additional pressure on regional budgets, accelerate the losses of troubled banks, and trigger a widespread wave of bankruptcies.