From Logistics to the Military-Industrial Complex: Total Strengthening of russia’s Influence on belarus’ Economy

belarus is rapidly falling into russia’s economic orbit, and this dependence already covers key sectors – from energy and trade to finance, investment, and the defense industry. moscow’s dominance in foreign trade has become decisive: the lion’s share of belarusian exports goes to the russian market, with about a quarter going to third countries, but using russia’s infrastructure. Logistical access to ports, rail routes, and tariffs are effectively determined by the russian side, making up to 90 % of exports critically dependent on the rf.

Financial integration has also deepened in recent years. After sanctions against the belarusian banking sector and four state banks’ disconnection from SWIFT, minsk has completely switched to russian payment solutions. Similar trends can be observed in the currency market: half of the National Bank of the rb’s currency basket is made up of the russian ruble, and changes in the russia’s economy are instantly reflected in the belarusian ruble exchange rate.

Investment dependence shows similar dynamics. The share of russian capital in foreign direct investment has grown to almost 70 %. russia actually remains the only available source of external financing for minsk. At this, belarus’ public debt to the rf has reached about $8 billion, and moscow has agreed to restructure payments over seven years, strengthening its political and economic control.

The defense industry has become a separate dimension of integration. After the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, minsk increased its production cooperation with the russian military-industrial complex: at least 300 state-owned enterprises have been reoriented to fulfill russian defense contracts.

Taken together, these processes have created a situation in which minsk’s room for economic maneuver has been significantly reduced, while strategic decisions are determined exclusively by the kremlin’s political and economic priorities.