From Sahel to Lagos: the kremlin Is Moving to Systemic Influence on African States

russia is increasing its informational influence in Nigeria, relying on the African Initiative agency network, which has been operating in Lagos since 2024. Campaigns are coordinated through the Afree app and Telegram and X messengers.

moscow is using tactics tested in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso: appealing to anti-colonial sentiments and positioning itself as an alternative to the West – a partner without political conditions that allegedly ensures security and development. In northern regions of the country, these messages are most actively disseminated through ties with Niger.

Of Nigeria’s more than 237 million citizens, about half have access to the Internet. TikTok and WhatsApp are the main channels of political communication. Young people under the age of 25 make up about 70 % of the population and are the main audience. In 2025, more than 45 % of Nigerians regularly consume political content online – the highest figure among African countries.

russian campaigns are systemic in nature. Their goal is to delegitimize state institutions ahead of the 2027 elections and foster anti-Western moods. During mass events, the dissemination of pro-russian content increased online engagement by approximately 40 %. The materials often justify military coups and discredit democratic institutions.

Studies show that 75 % of young Nigerians cannot recognize fake videos. This makes the audience vulnerable to disinformation. The expansion of russia’s information presence indicates the kremlin’s shift from local operations in the Sahel to systemic influence on the continent’s leading states. This approach helps moscow strengthen its political position and lay the groundwork for economic and military expansion in the region.