Fuel Shortage in russia Is Deepening

The fuel shortage has affected at least 20 regions of russia, the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine included. At the same time, the cost of petroleum products is rising across the country.

According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, on September 17, the price of AI-92 petrol rose above 73,200 rubles a ton which became  a historic high.

The crisis is due to a number of factors. First, since August 2, 13 oil refineries in the rf with a total capacity of 119.2 million tons per year have been out of service. As a result, the ministry of fuel and energy and oil companies were forced to revise the schedule for planned repairs of oil refineries in order to increase petrol supplies to the domestic market.

The shortage was also caused by low stock levels in retail networks: due to the high policy rate and expensive loans, regional filling station operators could not build up reserves, which has already led to the closure of filling stations in Belgorod and Vladimir regions.

A separate factor is the artificial restriction of supply by large state-owned companies – Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and Tatneft. They regularly postpone shipments of contracted fuel, giving preference to their own filling stations. It is more economically advantageous for companies to pay a 5 % monetary penalty for failing to fulfill their exchange obligations than to send petrol to the market.

In the short term, particularly in the winter of 2025/2026, this will lead to a deterioration in the socio-economic situation in the rf, increased dependence on fuel imports from belarus, Kazakhstan, China, and additional risks in logistics, first of all for the needs of the occupying army.