In 2026, the Fuel Market of the rf Will Remain Vulnerable

In 2025, price growth in russia’s fuel market exceeded normal inflation trends: retail prices for petrol rose by 10.8 %, and for diesel fuel – by 8 %, with officially declared inflation at 5.6 %. The key factor was unscheduled repairs at oil refineries, which caused a significant reduction in production.

In an attempt to normalize the market, russian authorities were forced not only to maintain but also to extend the ban on petrol exports, initially until September 30, 2025, and then – until February 28, 2026.

An additional blow to the oil refining industry was the reduction in state support – payments under the damper mechanism for the first 11 months of 2025 were halved. In response, vertically integrated companies compensated for their losses at the expense of the domestic market: in November 2025, petrol producer prices rose by 14.5 % compared to the previous year, and retail prices rose by 12.8 %.

Against this background, the drop in world oil prices posed an additional risk. Companies will continue to try to pass on the losses from raw material exports to domestic consumers by raising petrol and diesel prices.

Even with a partial recovery in production, russia’s fuel industry remains unstable. In 2026, the market will again face price spikes regardless of the dynamics of petroleum product output. The vulnerability of the system will only increase due to a combination of administrative restrictions, financial pressure, and external market conditions.