Labor Shortage Indicates russia’s Deep Technological Degradation

The ministry of labor  of the rf has published a forecast of needs for personnel for 2026–2032, which demonstrates a large-scale crisis in the labor market. By 2032, the economy will need about 12.2 million workers, or an average of 1.7 million per year. The forecast is based on demographic realities: the decline in the number of young people,  the aging population, and the  increase in the number of pensioners.

Minister of labour  Anton Kotyakov has acknowledged that the greatest demand will be for blue-collar professions such as tailors, welders, mechanics, turners, and machine operators. According to the ministry’s estimates, the number of such workers could increase by 135,000–226,000, depending on the industry. The government is trying to compensate for the shortage by focusing on vocational education and improvement of productivity.

However, these measures cannot overcome systemic problems: sanctions, technological backwardness, and low automation of production. The need to replace more than 12 million workers only confirms the long-term negative trend. The growing demand for middle management reflects the deterioration of the economy, which is forced to shift from high-tech to labor-intensive models.

The shortage of personnel, combined with mobilization risks, will inevitably intensify competition between the civilian and defense sectors. The outflow of labor to the military-industrial complex will further deepen the crisis in civilian enterprises.