lukashenko Is Again Using Migrants As a Tool of Pressure on the EU

The European Union is facing a new wave of illegal migration due to the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Africa, the Middle East and Afghanistan. At the same time, political regimes that have experience in using migrants as a geopolitical tool are again in the spotlight.

One of them is belarusian dictator lukashenko, who is again using his territory for the transit of illegal migrants to Poland. Some of the flows come from Libya – directly or through russia, indicating coordination between minsk and moscow.

The scenario repeats the crisis of 2021, when the lukashenko regime organized a mass influx of migrants to the EU borders in an attempt to exchange a reduction in tension for the lifting of sanctions. That blackmail did not work: the restrictions only intensified, while the diplomatic isolation of minsk deepened.

Despite his total dependence on the kremlin, lukashenko acts flexibly. Today, he continues to make money on the transit of migrants, but avoids outright escalation – so as not to lose the remnants of political contacts in Europe, in particular with Hungary, which consistently opposes migration.

The aggravation of the migration situation on the eastern borders of the EU increases risks to European security and creates additional opportunities for authoritarian regimes’ maneuvering. lukashenko, despite his reputation as putin’s satellite, retains autonomy in matters of tactics – and once again demonstrates his readiness to use it for political pressure on the West.