Permafrost Thaw Threatens russia’s Economy: Infrastructure Losses Are Becoming Critical

Over the past 30 years, the depth of seasonal thawing of the upper part of the permafrost in the rf has increased from 45 to 70 cm. This is happening in regions critically important for the country’s economy, where the main centers of extraction of oil, gas, and other minerals are located.

In total, permafrost covers 65 % of the rf’territory, with large cities such as Vorkuta, Norilsk, Yakutsk, and Magadan located in the permafrost zone. russia’s Arctic regions with permafrost account for more than half of the entire Arctic territory, and it is there that 10 % of russia’s GDP and 20 % of its exports are generated,  and 18 % of oil, 90 % of natural gas, 90 % of nickel and cobalt, 60 % of copper, and 100 % of diamonds are extracted.

The short-sightedness of soviet and russian engineers and builders in designing infrastructure exclusively for permafrost has led to the annual seasonal destruction of buildings – almost all Arctic residential buildings (81 %) were built between 1960 and 1999 there.

More than 40 % of buildings in the Arctic zone have already been deformed: 80 % – in Vorkuta, 55 % – in Magadan, 35% – in Dikson, 22 % – in Tiksi, and 9–10 % – in Yakutsk and Norilsk. At the same time, 1,260 km of main gas pipelines and thousands of kilometers of roads are at risk.

By 2050, the population of the Arctic zone in russia will decrease by 61 % compared to 2017 and will amount to 1.7 million people.