russia and belarus Are Preparing for a Year of Cuts and Deficits

Prices for russian Urals crude oil have declined to their lowest level since spring, calling into question the realism of the budget plans of both moscow and minsk.

russia’s budget was initially based on a price of $70 per barrel for Urals, but the forecast was later lowered to $58. For 2026, the rf’s ministry of finance expects a slight increase to $59, but even under these conditions, it forecasts a 20 % drop in oil and gas revenues and a deficit of at least 3.8 trillion rubles.

The optimism of russian calculations is undermined by market trends: global oil prices have decreased, and Urals quotations have already dropped below the EU’s “ceiling” of $47.6 per barrel. Against the background of growing production in other countries, the prospects for price increases look poor.

For belarus, whose economy depends on trade with russia for more than two-thirds of its GDP, this means direct losses. In nine months, GDP growth was only 1.6 % against the planned 4 %, and industrial production declined.

The belarusian government’s new forecast for next year has also been revised downward, with economic growth expected to be only 2.6 %. A year ago, minsk promised stable growth of over 4 % per year.

Both economies are approaching the new year without a safety margin. russia is facing a decline in energy revenues, which threatens to widen the budget deficit and reduce social spending. belarus, whose trade and finances are almost entirely tied to moscow, is losing even the formal signs of independence.