russia Is Accumulating Signs of a New Wave of Mobilization

The pace of recruiting contract soldiers into the russian army is slowing down, and there are increasing signs in the rf’s media that the kremlin is preparing to ramp up mobilization readiness. According to deputy chairman of the security council of the rf dmitry medvedev, approximately 200,000 people signed contracts with the ministry of defense between January and June 2026, while another 16,000 joined volunteer units. A year ago, during the same period, these figures exceeded 210,000 and 18,000, respectively. Even official statistics indicate a 5–11% decline in recruitment, and according to estimates by German researcher Janis Klug, the actual drop in recruitment rates reached about 20% in the spring.

Against this background, the number of job openings related to military registration has surged in russia. By the end of July, there were over 2,500 such job postings on the “headhunter” platform, with nearly a third of them published in just the last week. Employers are seeking staff in moscow, st. petersburg, samara, nizhny novgorod, belgorod, kazan, ufa, krasnodar, rostov-on-don, yekaterinburg, and khabarovsk. Among the employers are “roscosmos”, “russia’s post”, and “rostelecom”. Meanwhile, governor of moscow region andrey vorobyev has expanded the powers of the regional headquarters in case of mobilization or the imposition of martial law. There are also reports that the ministry of labor is recommending that regions prepare migrant workers in advance to replace employees who may be drafted into the army.

Anxiety is also growing within russian society. In July, the number of search queries about mobilization on Yandex reached 1.2 million. Within a week, the percentage of russians who described the prevailing mood as anxious rose from 53% to 57%. Simultaneously, demand for rental housing in Armenia has exceeded the level seen in February 2022.

However, there are still no signs of preparations for a large-scale call-up of reservists. Procurement of medical supplies and military equipment remains roughly at last year’s level. Most likely, the kremlin will not risk announcing a new wave of mobilization before the parliamentary elections. Instead, it will attempt to compensate for the shortage of personnel through financial incentives, pressure on employers, and redeployment of troops between units.