russia Is Facing an Unprecedented Personnel Crisis Amid the Protracted War Against Ukraine

In 2024, the labor shortage in russia reached a record 2.6 million people, which is by 17 % more than a year earlier. If the current dynamics continues, the shortage of personnel could reach 4 million over the next five years. The greatest demand is expected to be for medium – and high-skilled workers, especially in key sectors of the economy.

The industry has lost almost a third of the required personnel – about 391 thousand engineers and equipment operators. More than 347,000 jobs are not filled in the trade sector, and the transportation industry is experiencing a shortage of more than 200,000 drivers. The most critical situation is in the agricultural sector, where the shortage of workers has reached 35 %.

The main reasons for the personnel crisis include:

- mobilization measures and mass emigration of highly qualified professionals  and representatives of scarce specialties (from 650 thousand to 1.1 million people left the country to avoid conscription);

- the demographic pitfall of the 1990s;

- chronic unattractiveness of the labor market in the agricultural and industrial sectors due to low wages and difficult working conditions;

- lack of systematic training of technical specialists;

- businesses relying on migrants instead of investing in training and automation.

Despite the  10–15 % increase in salaries at a number of companies, these measures did not compensate for the losses. The staff shortage is becoming systemic and threatens the long-term stability of russia’s economy. Against the background of the ongoing war against Ukraine, the kremlin’s efforts to overcome the crisis remain fragmented and ineffective.