russia Is Finding It Increasingly Difficult to Ensure a Stable Flow of Contract Servicemen

Despite the fact that official statistics show stable rates of recruitment to the rf’s armed forces, signs of depletion of the resource base are becoming increasingly apparent. In the third quarter of 2025, more than 135,200 people signed contracts with the ministry of defense, and a total of 262,700 in January-September, or about 29,000 per month, which corresponds to the level of 2024. However, these figures increasingly fail to reflect the real difficulties faced by the regional recruitment system.

As of November 2025, at least 11 regions of russia – including Leningrad, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk, and Orenburg regions, the republics of Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Khakassia, Chuvashia, Mari El, as well as the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Zabaykalsky Krai – have reduced payments for signing contracts and assistance to the families of deceased servicemen. For many territories, these incentives were a key mechanism for attracting new military personnel.

After the regional aggregate deficit exceeded US$9 billion in September, the ability of federal entities to maintain financial incentives has been sharply reduced. The reduction in bonuses directly complicates further recruitment, as it was the increased payments that compensated for the growth in risks and losses over the past two years.

Government decisions show that it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the previous pace of army recruitment. With insufficient funds to maintain incentives, the kremlin will rely on other tools – from intensified propaganda to expanded repressive practices – in an attempt to maintain recruitment levels amid the deteriorating socio-economic situation in the regions.