russia’s Economy Is Entering a Phase of Controlled Chaos

russia’s financial and institutional system is sinking deeper and deeper into a state of controlled chaos.

The Central Bank of the rf has acknowledged the de facto collapse of disclosure standards: from 2027, financial organizations will  be required to publish only anonymized data on ownership structure. After 2022, banks and insurers were allowed not to disclose information about owners and management, citing sanctions risks. As a result, out of 352 credit institutions, only three banks, or less than 1 %, now disclose their ownership structure. The “compromise” proposed by the regulator provides for formal “yes/no” answers regarding the presence of persons with significant influence, “unfriendly” non-residents, or problematic beneficiaries, with the form to be filled out by the Central Bank itself. This underscores that the market cannot ensure even minimal transparency without manual control. The regulatory framework is promised to be adopted in 2026 and launched no earlier than April 2027.

In parallel, the state is moving in the opposite direction in other spheres. A package of draft laws has been submitted to the state duma that would abolish regular income declarations for russian civil servants. MPs and senators have called this “a step in fighting corruption”, which only widens the gap between rhetoric and real control mechanisms.

Against the background of institutional degradation, economic tensions are escalating. One-third of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in the rf do not rule out closing their businesses within six months. Banks have sharply reduced consumer lending: POS loans are approved for only one in ten customers, while the share of refusals reached 90 % in November. At the same time, pawnshops received 9.6 billion rubles in net profit in January–September – by 54 % more than a year earlier, which is an indirect indicator of the decline in the population’s solvency.

Financial problems have also affected the public sector. In 2025, the volume of non-payments by state-owned companies to businesses under public procurement contracts increased 2.7 times: from 200 cases worth 1.5 billion rubles in 2024 to 548 cases worth almost 4.03 billion rubles. Companies are delaying payments for one to three months, effectively borrowing from contractors. The reasons are declining incomes and the high cost of loans. The cybersphere has become an additional sign of disorder: 73 % of all data leaks in 2025 occurred in the public sector. The expectations of businesses and employees are also gloomy: only 13 % of russians hope to receive an annual bonus.

Taken together, these trends paint a picture of a market that is increasingly distancing itself from global standards and is getting mothballed  in a state of isolation, mistrust, and systemic chaos.