Sanctions Are Cutting Down russia’s Forestry Industry

The sanctions imposed by the West after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine continue to stifle key sectors of russia’s economy, turning export-oriented industries into victims of global isolation. Among them, the timber industry – once one of the pillars of moscow’s raw material exports – is facing a catastrophic decline, which is only expected to accelerate in the coming months. russian deputy minister of industry and trade Mikhail Yurin has acknowledged that if current economic conditions persist or worsen, the downward trend will rapidly intensify, turning the industry into yet another symbol of the kremlin’s economic decline.

In the worst-case scenario – with the current key rate, tighter monetary policy and sanctions – production will collapse by another 20-30 %. The sawn timber, plywood and pulp segments are already doomed to decline due to a lack of raw materials, technology and markets. Secondary and tertiary sanctions are closing loopholes in China and Asia, forcing companies to reduce capacities and lay off workers.

The complex’s exports have dropped to $9.8 billion from their 2021 peak, reflecting boycotts and logistical barriers. Logging is barely holding on: in 2025, it will reach a maximum of 180 million cubic meters, compared to 188 million in 2023 and 194.6 million in 2022. This decline signals an ever-deepening recession in russia’s raw materials model.