Tax Pressure and Debt Problems Are Pushing Small Businesses in russia into Bankruptcy

In the rf, small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) are rapidly losing stability. The level of uncertainty is growing: 33 % of entrepreneurs acknowledge the risk of winding up their activities within the next six months, which is by 7 % more than a year ago. Financial vulnerability is becoming critical – the russian Central Bank is recording a deterioration in the condition of companies, while loan defaults in October 2025 already affected 24 % of borrowers. The share of SMBs that are unable to meet their debt obligations rose to 9.5 % in the third quarter.

Tax pressure only exacerbates the crisis: the government has raised the VAT rate and sharply lowered the revenue threshold for mandatory tax payment from $756,500 to $252,200. This increases costs and the administrative burden, and the share of VAT payers among entrepreneurs on the simplified system will increase from 3.6 % to 15 %. Against this background, 37 % of companies are forced to revise their business strategies.

State support is effectively being rolled back: in the first half of 2025, it dropped by 40 %, while the number of recipients of assistance decreased by 17 %. Sales are also decreasing, with 34 % of companies reporting a decline in sales.

The combination of these factors demonstrates a systemic deterioration in the financial stability of SMBs, an increased risk of bankruptcies, and a decline in investment activity. If tight monetary policy continues in 2026, the situation will worsen, leading to mass layoffs and a decline in tax revenues. The business environment in russia is moving toward a deep crisis.