The Campaign Against “wildberries” Has Destroyed a 1.3 Trillion Ruble Pyramid Scheme

The campaign against “wildberries”’ warehouses – which resulted in at least 14 of the company’s logistics hubs being burnt down – destroyed the business model of russia’s largest marketplace, which annually sold goods worth 3% of the country’s GDP.

Direct losses alone for the company, which lost at least 20% of its warehouse capacity in just a few weeks, could exceed 100 billion rubles, and under a pessimistic scenario – reach 200 billion. “wildberries”’ total financing needs are already estimated at 1.3 trillion rubles. In fact, this is the amount the company will have to borrow just to remain solvent.

Sellers are leaving the platform en masse, instantly having lost business and inventory worth hundreds of billions of rubles, so the marketplace’s turnover has already shrunk by at least a quarter. This has not only impacted current performance metrics but has also effectively undermined the financial pyramid that the company’s owner, tatyana kim, had been building for years.

The scheme was simple: “wildberries” receives payment from the buyer immediately but transfers the funds to the seller only after a few weeks. During this time, the funds remain in the company’s working capital and finance operating expenses and discounts. The model holds up as long as revenue continues to grow. As soon as it collapses, the pyramid begins to crumble: accumulated expenses are no longer covered by the inflow of new money, and the company’s losses mount. If payments to sellers start to be delayed not by three weeks, but by three months, liquidity problems will spill over to the sellers themselves.

The marketplace’s revenue continues to fall, and this is only the beginning of a prolonged downturn: after such a blow, the company will remain unprofitable for years to come.

Meanwhile, the government of the rf is preparing a support package for sellers: tax breaks, subsidized loans, and the marketplace itself may be allowed to use “russia’s post”’s warehouses instead of the burnt-down hubs. As a result, another entity – one that is already barely staying afloat – is being put in the line of fire. By the end of 2025, the company’s net loss had risen to 23.7 billion rubles, while its net debt exceeded 107 billion.

The kremlin simply does not have the money for preferential loans to “wildberries” unless it issues additional currency. According to the ministry of finance of the rf, in the first half of the year, the federal budget deficit reached 5.7 trillion rubles – one and a half times the target for the entire year. kremlin analysts forecast that the budget deficit will grow to 7 trillion rubles by the end of the year, while according to the rf central bank’s estimates, it could exceed 8 trillion.