The Failure of russian Mercenaries in Mali Undermines the kremlin’s Strategy in Africa

The russian private military company “wagner” is a failure in Mali, where around 2,000 of its fighters have been unable to improve security or gain control of resources, as they did in the Central African Republic. Instead of fighting jihadists, the mercenaries entered into conflict with the Malian army and only increased the level of violence.

After the 2021 coup, power in the country was seized by a junta led by Assimi Goita. He built an alliance with moscow, expecting russian mercenaries to follow the orders of the Malian command and effectively fight against the jihadists. Instead, the largest jihadist network in the Sahel – JNIM (Al-Qaeda in the Sahel) – continues to build up its influence in the region.

After Goita’s coming to power, the number of civilian deaths increased more than fourfold: from 736 per year to over 3,000 in 2022–2024. At this, 80 % of the deaths were caused not by jihadists, but by the local army and “wagner” mercenaries. The russians’ tactic of terrorizing ordinary Malians has proved ineffective: the population refuses to cooperate with them.

Relations between russian mercenaries and the Malian military are deteriorating noticeably: there have been reports of insubordination, theft of equipment, and overt racism. The tension culminated in August with the repression of dozens of officers who disagreed with the PMC’s methods.

Unlike in Sudan and the CAR, the kremlin has not gained control over mineral resources, particularly gold mines: Goita rejected moscow’s demands and began looking for alternative partners to provide security assistance and mineral extraction agreements.