The russian Car Market Is Plunging into a Protracted Crisis

Despite the record discounts and active marketing policies, car dealers in russia cannot sell the excess stocks. In the first half of 2025, warehouse stock balance of new cars decreased by only 20-30 thousand units from almost half a million at the beginning of the year. In June, 90.2 thousand new cars were sold, while production and imports together amounted to 103.8 thousand, which only worsened the imbalance.

Dealers’ warehouse stocks cover 4–7 months of sales, while two months is considered the norm. A third of dealer networks are on the verge of bankruptcy, in part due to the rising rent and costs of debt service. The greatest losses are recorded by companies operating on credit.

The market reacted by curtailing business: showrooms are closing and employees are being laid off. One of the leading dealers in moscow has already fired a quarter of the personnel. AvtoVAZ, which expects the market to fall by 25 % (to 1.1 million vehicles), is switching to a four-day work week starting in September.

At the same time, sales of luxury cars increased by 19 %. In six months, russians purchased 320 premium cars, including 100 Rolls-Royces (+56 % compared to last year). The supply is carried out through parallel imports.

General anxiety in the labor market is also growing: the share of companies planning layoffs rose from 6.9 % in January to 11.5 % in June. The largest number of layoffs is in the mining industry, machine building, and pharmaceuticals. At the same time, expectations of salary growth have declined sharply: the median estimate has dropped from 8.4 % to 5.3 %.