Türkiye, China, and the UAE Pushing russia Out of the Sahel

The second meeting between the foreign ministers of russia and the Confederation of Sahel States (CSS) – which includes Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – took place in Niamey, Niger. The parties signed a communiqué on military support, arms supplies, and intelligence sharing, while moscow once again framed its presence in the region as a fight against “neocolonial practices” – a standard kremlin formula for covering up its own interests.

But what is happening on paper differs greatly from the reality on the ground. In early July, jihadists and rebels carried out coordinated attacks on military positions in various areas of Mali, particularly near locations where government and russian forces are deployed. Similar threats have been reported in Niger and Burkina Faso. This demonstrates that opponents of the CSS regimes retain a high level of operational capability despite the expansion of the russian military presence.

moscow’s ineptitude is being exploited by its competitors. Türkiye is squeezing out the russians in the security services market and supplying Bayraktar drones. China, whose investments in Africa total $3.4 billion annually, is deploying its own security companies to protect the Agadem-Seme oil pipeline in Niger, combining arms sales with infrastructure financing. The UAE already has a security agreement with Mali and has invested over $500 million in gold mining, becoming a key hub in the region.

Therefore, Sahel governments will continue to extract military and financial aid from russia while simultaneously seeking other partners. The kremlin’s attempts to gain a foothold in the region through mere promises and militarization are weakening by the day, while the propaganda portal “african initiative” remains the only tangible result of this venture.