January 17, 2025 Ukraine and the World – Against russia’s Aggression. Sanctions in Action

Ukraine and the United Kingdom have signed a 100 Year Partnership agreement to deepen security ties and strengthen the partnership for future generations. The Treaty will bolster military cooperation on maritime security through a new framework to strengthen Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Azov Sea security and deter ongoing russian aggression.

The United Kingdom will transfer to Ukraine a database created to track and stop the grain theft from the Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by the rf.

President of Poland Andrzej Duda believes that the North Atlantic Alliance should invite Ukraine to join NATO right away.

Poland will facilitate the opening of the first cluster for negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts its investments in Ukraine this year at EUR 1.54 billion.

The Register of Damages Caused by the rf’s Aggression Against Ukraine (RD4U), established under the auspices of the Council of Europe, has started accepting applications for compensation from family members who lost close relatives as a result of russia's full-scale invasion of our country.

The UN plans to raise more than $2.6 billion to help Ukrainians in 2025.

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said that the Alliance is not prepared enough to respond to russia's military threats. He called on the allies to shift to a “wartime mindset” and increase defense spending. Rutte stated: “To prevent war, we need to prepare for it”. According to the NATO chief, rethinking the attitude to threats means strengthening defense capabilities and improving the quality of weapons. Rutte emphasized that moscow is preparing for a “long-term confrontation” with Ukraine and NATO. He called the current security situation “the most threatening” in decades and urged the allies to “adapt to the new reality”.

The US Department of the Treasury has announced new sanctions – the updated register includes 16 individuals from the rf, Germany and Türkiye, as well as companies from russia, China, the UAE, Türkiye and other countries. The sanctions list includes the “tactical missile arms” corporation (one of russia's largest arms companies) and “barnaultransmash”, which produces engines for infantry fighting vehicles. Besides, the restrictions include “aeroelektromash” (which makes electrical equipment for aviation and space technology), the “central research institute of special machine building”, and the “research institute of physical measurements”. The sanctions list also includes “voyentorg” – russia’s chain of shops selling military gear.

The US Department of the Treasury has also announced sanctions against russian schemes used to circumvent sanctions on military goods. The sanctions targeted a network of legal entities in the rf and China that operated a scheme to circumvent sanctions by facilitating cross-border payments for classified goods. The sanctions have also been imposed on Chinese companies involved in the supply and production of russian glider bombs and “lantset” and “harpia-a1” attack drones used in russia's war against Ukraine, as well as a Kyrgyz financial institution, Keremet Bank. In a separate decision, the United States re-added to the “blacklist” 100 organizations of the military-industrial complex, which will allow for restrictions against companies that cooperate with them. In total, the new US sanctions have affected about 250 individuals and legal entities. This is the first time the United States has exposed russian sanctions evasion networks.

The US Department of the Treasury has added to the sanctions list the “federal state unitary enterprise “Zaporizhzhia NPP”, which the russians created on the basis of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian nuclear power plant, and its ceo, vladislav isayev.

The USA’s new sanctions against the russian oil sector have “mowed down” the shadow fleet that transported russian oil from the Far East to China. The restrictions affected tankers carrying more than a quarter of russia's sea exports. As a result, the cost of chartering vessels on this route instantly more than tripled. On Monday, rates for the delivery of ESPO crude oil to China from the port of kozmino in the coastal region jumped to $5-5.5 million for a tanker. (On January 9, before the announcement by the US Treasury Department, they were $1.5 million). According to analysts and market participants, prices may rise even further.

Chief of the EU Diplomacy Kaja Kallas has said that Ukraine's allies should work to lower the price cap on russian oil to deprive the kremlin of revenue.

Against the background of russia's war against Ukraine, Minister of Defence of Estonia Hanno Pevkur has submitted a proposal to the Government to establish a military plant for military explosives.

India has reiterated its demand to the rf for early return of Indian nationals who are still fighting on the side of the rf against Ukraine. Some time ago, another one of them was killed. It was Binil Baba, a native of Thrissur in Kerala. After the news of his death, New Delhi once demanded from the russian government to repatriate all Indians as soon as possible.

Poland, which has been the largest importer of russian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), will cut its purchases by 80%. After the EU’s embargo on imports of russian liquefied natural gas came into force on December 20, 2024, imports are expected to drop sharply – from 100 thousand tons a month in 2024 to about 20 thousand tons in 2025.

russian gazprom is considering liquidation of its representative offices in Brussels and Tokyo. gazprom has practically lost the European export market. After the termination of gas transit through Ukraine, gazprom has only one branch to Europe – through Turkey.

In 2024, the amount of liquid, i.e. unused funds of the russian national wealth fund (nwf), decreased by another third, or by $18.4 billion. As of January 1, the NWF had $37.5 billion of “free” money, the lowest level since 2008, when the fund was created. The kremlin's coffers are under pressure due to rising budgetary spending related to the needs of the army. The ministry of finance spent 1.3 trillion rubles from the fund to cover the budget deficit. The reserves were also spent on measures to support the rf’s economy in the face of large-scale sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies, as well as to finance large infrastructure projects.

Inflation in the rf jumped to 9.52% in 2024 from 7.42% a year earlier. Over the past 15 years, inflation was higher only in 2022 – 11.94%, when russia fully invaded Ukraine, and during the economic crisis of 2014-2015 after the temporary occupation of Crimea – 11.35% and 12.91%, respectively.

The area of inflationary disaster in the rf has become the grocery aisle, where prices have soared by tens of percent and continue to rise. Potatoes went up by 90.5%, cabbage – by 42.6%, onions – by 46.5%, beets – by 32.3%, butter – by 35.2%, milk – by 18.2%, sour cream – by 19.2%, cheese – by 14.2%, apples – by 20.2%, cucumbers – by 22.1%, lamb – by 23.1%, and beef – by 12.9%.

From January 1 to January 13, inflation in the rf added another 0.64%, while the annual rate accelerated to 9.9%, updating the record set in February 2023. According to the central bank's forecast, inflation will continue to accelerate and will reach the peak in the first quarter of 2025. In January-February, it may accelerate to 11.5%.

Between January and November 2024, coal exports from the rf decreased by 9% to 179.76 million tons. At the same time, export prices for russian coal fell to many-month lows and will not level off in the first half of this year due to accumulated reserves and increased production in China and India, where a significant portion of russian coal is supplied to. Depending on the grade and port of shipment, power generating coal prices by mid-January were $60-87 a ton; coking coal was sold for $118-121 for a ton. At the beginning of 2024, the price of power generating coal was $101, while at the beginning of 2023 it was $135 for a ton. The problems of the russian economy, a sharp drop in export prices for coal and tougher Western sanctions will lead to the bankruptcy of many players in the russian coal industry in 2025.

In 2024, the cargo turnover of russian seaports decreased to 886.3 million tons. The largest decline was in the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin – down to 275.7 million tons.

In russia, prices for beer supplied from countries designated as “unfriendly” will rise significantly due to an increase in duties from 10 cents to 1 euro a liter. Due to duties and VAT, the price at the distributor will increase by about $1.27-$1.37 (130-140 rubles) for a liter and $0.63-$0.68 (65-70 rubles) for a bottle, while retail prices are expected to rise by $0.78-$0.88 (80-90 rubles).

In December 2024, consumer petrol prices in russia increased by 11.13% compared to December 2023, which is higher than the overall inflation rate of 9.52% for the year. In 2023, petrol prices rose by 7.2% against the inflation rate of 7.4%, while in 2022 they rose by 0.9% against the inflation rate of 11.9%.

In 2024, russians pledged 45% more apartments for loans than a year earlier. In 2023, the loans amounted to RUB 120.11 billion, and in 2024 – to RUB 175 billion. In addition, in the first eight months of 2024, russians pledged to banks more than 1.5 million vehicles, which is by 64% more than in the same period in 2023.

In the rf, it is necessary to prepare the entire male population for possible mobilization for war with Western countries that will be ready to attack russia in the next three to four years. This statement was made by deputy chairperson of the state duma defense committee aleksei zhuravlev.

Fuel oil emissions from the tankers that suffered a disaster in the Black Sea will continue at least until summer. At the same time, the head of rospotrebnadzor popova has declared that it is safe to consume fish from the Black Sea after the spill of several thousands of tons of fuel oil.

In 2024, at least 29 Crimeans convicted by the russian occupying authorities in political and religious cases were transferred to various penitentiary institutions in the rf.

dictator lukashenko says he is not following the election campaign and has no time for pre-election debates. According to a pro-government poll, 82.5 percent are ready to vote for the “current head of state”. Political observer Vitaly Tsygankov has emphasized that discussions about the number of percents that should be drawn for lukashenko take place in belarusian ruler's environment before every election.

To resolve the problem of staff shortage in the rb, lukashenko has suggested attracting labor migrants. “If you want to invite Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Syrians, Afghans, any people, invite them... They are people like us... But each person must be looked at”. A week earlier, the belarusian dictator also spoke about migrants. “I am already informed that people from the East are starting to arrive. Not only those who wish us some kind of enmity and war. No, people are coming who want to live, work, earn money and send some money back home to feed their children. But the trouble is that those people are far from the issues we are dealing with. They are incompetent. They are not professionally trained”.

state secretary of the security council of the rb volfovich has announced an alleged plan to seize the border areas of the rb by “extremist groups” of belarusians and to deploy a peacekeeping contingent by the West. Back in April 2024, lukashenko claimed that “volunteers” were preparing to seize kobryn district. In August of the same year, he admitted that the plan he voiced was “idiotic.”

There is no extra money to finance the army of the rb,– lukashenko said during his report on the approval of the state investment program for 2025.

In 2024, sales of belarusian “maz” buses to the rf decreased by 45.5% compared to 2023. In total, the rb delivered 504 “maz” buses to russia in 2024, compared to 923 in 2023. Sales of “maz” trucks in russia also declined: in 2024, 5,719 trucks were sold, down by 10.7% from 2023.

The government of the rb has introduced licensing for the export of cabbages, apples, onions, carrots and beet roots for three months. During these three months, exports of the mentioned products, regardless of the country of origin, will be possible only under one-time licenses issued by the ministry of antimonopoly regulation and trade in coordination with the ministry of agriculture, regional executive committees and minsk city executive committee. When issuing a license, they take into consideration the assessment of the ratio of available resources of this product in the country and the need for it at the time of license approval.